History shows that the several days following the Fourth of July can be pivotal for grains futures prices. Existing trends in the grain markets can be reversed or accelerated. 

Grain bulls showed some promise in the two trading days before the July 4 holiday, producing technically bullish weekly high closes in corn (ZCZ25) and soybean (ZSX25) markets, with winter wheat futures (ZWZ25) also posting good gains. Indeed, grain bulls headed into the three-day holiday weekend with confidence that their markets could extend gains when trading commenced on Monday, July 7. 

Instead, the bears seemingly had set a trap that the unwitting bulls stepped right into.

Last week’s carnage in the grain futures markets was just plain ugly for corn and beans, and not much better for winter wheat. December corn futures hit a new contract low last Friday and for the week lost 24 3/4 cents. November soybeans last week hit a three-month low and saw the largest weekly price loss in a year, at 40 3/4 cents. December SRW wheat futures fell 12 3/4 cents last week and December HRW wheat futures were down 33 1/4 cents on the week.

Where Do Grain Futures Markets Go from Here? 

History also shows that trading action in the first week or so of July can set the tone for the rest of the summer. As ominous as this is for the bulls, there are some fundamental elements for each market that should at least give the bears some pause. 

Export Demand for U.S. Corn Is Strong

Solid export demand for U.S. corn continues, with the latest weekly export sales pace exceeding the USDA’s estimated use by a significant margin. U.S. corn export sales rose to the highest level since May and were at an all-time high for the week ended July 3, according to the government’s weekly sales data. Last Friday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report did not offer much for the bulls, but the agency did raise U.S. corn exports by 100 million bushels, to 2.75 billion. 

The corn market bulls can argue that the strong U.S. export pace will at least put in a price floor in the corn market soon. The bears will counter that weather in the U.S. Midwest still leans firmly price-bearish, with much of the corn crop “already made.” Extended forecasts for the Corn Belt are not projecting any serious threats to a corn crop that is at present getting soil moisture reserves boosted almost by the day. 

U.S. Soybean Crop Looks Good, But Still Needs to Make It Through August

The USDA rated the U.S. soybean crop at 66% good to excellent conditions as of July 6, which was unchanged from the previous week. Only 7% of the crop was rated “poor” to “very poor.” While the soybean crop is in good shape at present, the weather during the last half of July and the month of August will more fully determine overall production. August is the most important growing month for most of the U.S. soybean crop. 

In other words, there is still plenty of time for a weather scare to quickly pop up in the soybean market to goose prices. Many more years than not, some degree of a weather market scare occurs in the corn and soybean markets.

U.S. soybean exports will be closely examined in the coming months as U.S. trade deals, or a lack thereof, will be main drivers of price action across many commodity futures markets. U.S. soybean exports lately have been decent despite a typical seasonal decline as the harvested South American supplies come to the world trade market. New U.S. trade deals in the coming weeks, especially one with China, could further boost U.S. soybean sales abroad.

Wheat Remains a Follower of Corn and Soybeans

Winter wheat futures saw price declines after last Friday’s USDA monthly crop supply and demand report that showed increased production for U.S wheat. USDA’s first 2025 production forecast with all U.S. wheat classes increased 8 million bushels from last month, to 1.929 billion bushels. Marketing year 2025-26 U.S. ending wheat stocks were forecast 8 million bushels lower from June mostly due to an increase in exports of 25 million bushels. 

Better U.S. wheat exports will be needed to jumpstart significant price uptrends in the wheat futures markets. And such will likely require new U.S. trade deals to be secured by the U.S.-imposed Aug. 1 deadline for new U.S. tariffs taking effect. New trade deals with the U.S. would be wheat-market friendly.

Still, wheat futures traders will keep a keener eye on the corn and soybean futures markets for their own daily price direction over the next several weeks. The fate of wheat markets’ price trajectories in that timeframe will likely be mostly determined by corn and soybean prices.